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About Hotpots

The Global Natural Disaster Hotspots project presents a global, synoptic view for six major natural hazards: cyclones, drought, earthquakes, floods, landslides and volcanoes. It assesses the risks of multiple disaster-related outcomes and focuses in particular on the degree of overlap between areas exposed to multiple hazards.

This online, interactive tool provides a basis for identifying geographic areas of highest relative disaster risk potential in order to prioritize disaster risk reduction investments and better inform development efforts.

Risks are assessed for two disaster-related outcomes: mortality and economic losses. Risk levels are estimated by combining hazard exposure with historical vulnerability for two indicators of elements at risk— gridded population and gross domestic product (GDP) per unit area.

Low-population and nonagricultural areas have been masked out where risks of losses are negligible (white areas marked "n/a" in the map legend). After calculating the expected losses for each remaining grid cell, grid cells were ranked and classified into deciles (10 classes composed of roughly equal numbers of cells). Cells falling into the highest three deciles for either mortality or economic losses are considered disaster risk hotspots.

FAQs

Q – What are the sources of the natural hazards data?

A –The data sources for each hazard are presented in the table below.

Hazard Hazardousness Parameter Period Resolution Source(s)
Storms Frequency by wind strength 1980-2000 30” UNEP/GRID-Geneva PreView
Drought Precipitation less than 75% of median for a 3+-month period (WASP) 1980-2000 2.5° IRI Climate Data Library
Floods Counts of extreme flood events 1985-2003* 1” Dartmouth Flood Obs. World Atlas of Large Flood Events
Earthquake Expected PGA (10% prob. of exceedance in 50 years) n/a sampled at 1’ Global Seismic Hazard Program
Freq. of earthquakes > 4.5 on Richter Scale 1976-2002 sampled at 2.5’ Smithsonian Institution
Volcanoes Counts of volcanic activity 79-2000 Sampled at 2.5’ UNEP/GRID-Geneva and NGDC
Landslides Estimated annual prob. of landslide or avalanche n/a 30” Norwegian Geotechnical Institute

Q – How was the relative risk for each disaster outcome calculated?

A – Disaster vulnerability was estimated by obtaining hazard-specific mortality and economic loss rates for World Bank regions and country wealth classes within them based on 20 years of historical loss data from the EM-DAT database of the Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED)

Q – How often is the Hotspots data updated?

A – The Hotspots initiative began in 2001, and the global analysis was published in 2005. While there are presently no immediate plans for updates to the Hotspots efforts are underway with a number of partners to improve upon and update the data. Project information will be updated on a daily basis.

Q – Are there any limitations to the Hotspots analysis?

A – As the datasets used in the analysis are global in scale, the level of detail available at the local level is limited, and the tool should only be used for large scale comparisons. For example, the data are too coarse and globally focused to highlight variations in small countries, and would not be suitable for land use planning, which would require more detailed analysis. There are also limitations related to the quality and availability of data. For a number of hazards, only 15- to 25-year records were available.

Q – Are there any more detailed analyses available?

A – A set of case studies has also been developed which explores risks from particular hazards or for localized areas in more detail, using the same theoretical framework as the global analysis. Three case studies address specific hazards: landslides, storm surges and drought. An additional, three case studies address regional multi-hazard situations in Sri Lanka,the Tana River basin in Kenya, and the city of Caracas, Venezuela. The publication Natural Disaster Hotspots: Case Studies was published in June 2006 and is available for download on the Hazard Risk Management website. Efforts are underway to develop more detailed analyses for specific countries. As these become available, they will be added to the Hotspots site.

Q – What organizations contributed to the Hotspots initiative?

A –In order to conduct this analysis, the World Bank Hazard Risk Management team partnered with DECRG and several research and international development agencies, including the Earth Institute at Columbia University, the UN Development , the UN Environment Programme, and the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute. The study was supported by the UK’s Department for International Development (DFID) and the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs under the umbrella of the ProVention Consortium.

Q - Why can’t I view a map of a desired natural disaster?

A - Ensure the View by Hazard tab is active, select the location and the hazard and risk type of interest from the menu on the left side of the screen, then click on the Generate Map button.

Q- Why can’t I view a map of the disaster related Projects?

A - Ensure that the View by Projects tab is active the select the Disaster Related Projects radio button.

Q- Why can’t I view the World Bank financed projects?

A - Ensure that the View by Projects tab is active and select the All Projects radio button.

Q - Nothing happens when I click on the Print icon to create a printer-friendly window. What should I do?

A - If you are using a pop-up blocker, turn it off or set it to allow pop-ups from this website

Q - I cannot get the Natural Disaster Hotspots application to work properly. What should I do?

A - Please note that the current implementation of the Hotspots application only works with Internet Explorer 6. If you are using a Mozilla browser such as Firefox, you will not be able to use many of the available features. For those of you using Internet Explorer, you need to ensure that you have the latest version of Internet Explorer, and that your browser’s settings have not been altered from the standard Enterprise Desktop (ED4) configuration (contact your OT for more details). For those outside the Bank, please send an email to hazardmanagement@worldbank.org with questions or to report problems with the site.

Link to the World Bank’s Hazard Risk Management site

Link to the Center for Hazard and Risk Research at Columbia University

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